Read this, I want the Pats to win but it's a good article whether you like them or not.
1. The Giants secondary gives up big plays When the Giants defense has struggled, it's often because their safeties are too aggressive. The Giants cornerbacks play man coverage, and their young safeties can be baited into big plays, notably James Butler (more on him later). The Giants were in the bottom 10 in the NFL this season in plays allowed over 20 yards, and in the bottom five in plays allowed over 40 yards. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots led the league in plays over 20 yards. The Giants have improved in the playoffs, but Donald Driver's 89-yard touchdown was a reminder that tight man coverage combined with slow safeties can be a risky bet.
2. Their run blocking is healthy The Patriots struggled to run against the Giants last time, but they were missing two starters - right guard Stephen Neal and right tackle Nick Kaczur. Neal is the nasty tone setter of their unit. Other than Kazcur, this group has played together for three years straight. They know each other's tendencies, weaknesses, and beard-growing patterns by heart. The interior - Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, and Neal - can maul with any group in the league. Kyle Brady is among the best blocking tight ends in football. If the Patriots are required, they can play smashmouth football.
3. They create mismatches No team can cover every Patriot receiver well. Opposing teams must pick their poison, but New England is excellent at picking it for you. In the team's first meeting, a linebacker was forced to cover Randy Moss on two occasions - in the red zone! The linebacker won, but that won't happen often. Moss will inevitably see double teams, but that just means more single coverage for Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and Donte' Stallworth.
4. Eli is overdue Eli Manning has played like a Pro Bowler the last four weeks, failing to throw an interception. But where is the league leader in interceptions we saw all season? Manning is the main reason the Giants had a -10 turnover differential during the season. Manning hadn't even made it three weeks without a pick the previous two years. Can we just ignore his history? With two weeks to prepare, Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Dean Pees are going to show things to Manning he's never seen before. And his history says that he'll at least turn the ball over once.
5. The Giants may be happy to be there The Giants have already achieved more than anyone expected and they may allow some satisfaction to creep in during Super Bowl week. And as well as they are playing, the numbers say that the Giants are one of the worst teams statistically to ever make the Big Game. The numbers, and human nature, might indicate they are due for a letdown.
6. James Butler can be manipulated In Week 12, the Vikings scored on a 60-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage because Butler was sucked in by a play-action fake. In the Week 17 Giants-Patriots game, Tom Brady found Randy Moss deep on consecutive plays in the fourth quarter against New York. On the second one, Butler tried to cover the underneath receiver. No one is better at moving safeties with his eyes and arm than Brady, and he'll try to target Butler for a big play.
7. Kevin Faulk is a Giant killer Faulk is one of the best runners in football at identifying blitzers and protecting his quarterback. This will be key against a creative New York pass rush. When Faulk goes out on routes, he is the perfect antidote to New York's press man coverage. Both the Chargers and Giants did well roughing up New England's outside receivers. But the Patriots countered with heavy doses of swing passes to Faulk. This slowed down the pass rush, and the Patriots receivers found it easy to block for Faulk since the cornerbacks were in such tight coverage. Faulk caught a combined 16 catches for 146 yards in those two games.
8. They are a warm weather team Yes, the Patriots call Foxborough home. And they showed they can play in rough conditions. That doesn't mean they want to or are particulary suited. Their offense is practically a run-n-shoot, and it benefits greatly from the timing made possible by good weather. The Giants, on the other hand, have the traditional meat-and-potatoes style that thrives in rough conditions.
9. Richard Seymour continues to get better After missing the first half of the season with a knee injury, the Patriots annual All Pro hasn't been his normal self for most of the season. Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren have been the best two lineman all year. But late in the season, Seymour has began to flash the skill that made him one of the highest paid linemen in football. He enjoyed a terrific AFC Championship. With Seymour close to full strength, the Patriots' defensive line matches up with any team in the league.
10. The Giants tighten up with the lead The Giants undeniably played worse in all phases once they got a 12-point lead against New England in their first meeting. They made mental mistakes, they ran conservative play calls, and they turned the ball over. They also began to only rush three defenders at Tom Brady. Against Dallas in the divisional round, Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride called conservative plays in the fourth quarter and the Giants went three-and-out twice, giving the Cowboys multiple chances to win. Against the Patriots, they must play aggressive for 60 minutes.
11. R.W. McQuarters and Corey Webster No team is better at picking out a weakness than the Patriots. And while McQuarters' played has improved in the postseason like the entire Giants secondary, he has a career of mediocrity than can't be ignored. Corey Webster is another player who was a goat all season, but has turned it on of late. The Patriots will spread the Giants out with three and four receivers often, and that will put too much pressure on McQuarters and Webster to win one-on-one matchups.
12. They are better on special teams Often a weakness of Patriots teams, New England's kicking and coverage units are superior to New York's statistically in almost every aspect. They are better covering kicks and they have a better field goal kicker. Steven Gostkowski's strong leg on kickoffs is a key to creating good field position.
13. Ahmad Bradshaw can be neutralized Yesterday, I wrote that Bradshaw's speed and receiving skills could give the Patriots fits. But the Patriots do have a way to attack Bradshaw - send the house. Bradshaw's poor pass protection skills are why we didn't see him all season. Bradshaw will struggle to pick up blitzes and possibly endanger Eli Manning. Brandon Jacobs is a better blocker, but not a great receiver. Bradshaw oddly might be a better fit on rushing downs.
14. They survived the worst of Tom Brady Tom Brady is coming off the greatest season for an NFL quarterback in league history. In the first round of the playoffs, he had two incompletions. Then last week, practically out of nowhere, he was picked off three times. Yet the Patriots still won by using a great red zone defense and power running game. Brady isn't going to play another game like that with perfect weather on tap. And if he does, the Patriots have shown they can survive it.
15. They already took the Giants best shot New York played fantastic in their first meeting. Eli Manning was nearly flawless. The Giants got a return touchdown. The pass rush got to Tom Brady consistently and they shut down New England's running game. And yet the Giants still gave up 38 points and lost. They only forced two punts. With the best offense in NFL history leading the way, there is no doubt the Patriots have a greater margin for error than New York.
16. They haven't lost yet These aren't the high-flying Patriots of the first half of the season. They are more resourceful, winning in different ways like past Patriots teams. They have played with media attention and pressure all season, taking every team's best shot. They have now reached their final destination, and like past Patriots teams, they know how to finish.
By Gregg Rosenthal
Rotoworld.com